This study is a master thesis for a master's program in Economics and Finance in the Department of Economics and Political Sciences at the University of Skövde. As the title indicates, the aim of the thesis is to use ARIMA and VAR models to predict inflation in Ghana. In order to fulfil this...

This paper gives a detailed overview of the current state of research in relation to the use of state space models and the Kalman-filter in the field of stochastic claims reserving. Most of these state space representations are matrix-based, which complicates their applications. Therefore, to...

Assessing potential output and the output gap is essential for policy-making and fiscal surveillance. The European Commission proposes a production function methodology that involves the estimation of two classes of Gaussian state space models. This paper presents the R package RGAP which...

We propose a multivariate Bayesian state space model to identify potential growth and the output gap consistent with the dynamics of the underlying production sectors of the economy and those of inflation and the labor market. Our approach allows us to decompose economic fluctuations and...

The research work presented below addresses the possible concern of central bank independence through the development and application of econometric models. The complexity of the modelling has allowed a step further in corroborating that financial independence is not only linked to the...