The paper analyses reasons for departures from strong rationality of growth and inflation forecasts based on annual observations from 1963 to 2004. We rely on forecasts from the joint forecast of the so-called "six leading" forecasting institutions in Germany and argue that violations of the...

Despite their effectiveness, linear models for realized variance neglect measurement errors on integrated variance and exhibit several forms of misspecification due to the inherent nonlinear dynamics of volatility. We propose new extensions of the popular approximate long-memory HAR model apt to...

This paper summarizes recent developments in non- and semiparametric regression with stationary fractional time series errors, where the error process may be short-range, long-range dependent or antipersistent. The trend function in this model is estimated nonparametrically, while the dependence...