Extreme value theory for a class of EGARCH processes is developed. It is shown that the EGARCH process as well as the logarithm of its conditional variance lie in the domain of attraction of the Gumbel distribution. Norming constants are obtained and it is shown that the considered processes...

During the past decades, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) had become one of a prevalent linear models in time series and forecasting. Empirical research advocated that forecasting with non-linear models can be an encouraging alternative to traditional linear models....

We present a non-parametric tail dependence estimator which arises naturally from a specific regression model. Above that, this tail dependence estimator also results from a specific copula mixture. -- Upper tail dependence ; nonparametric estimation ; copula

We present a new family of copulas ("generalized mean copulas") which is positive comprehensive and allows for upper tail dependence. It includes the Spearman copula and a specific Fréchet copula as special cases. Some properties and a generalized tail dependence estimator are derived. Finally,...

Accurate prediction of the frequency of extreme events is of primary importance in many financialapplications such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis. We propose a semi-parametric method for VaRevaluation. The largest risks are modelled parametrically, while smaller risks are captured by the...