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A new INAR(1) model for Z-valued time series using the relative binomial thinning operator
Kachour, Maher; Bakouch, Hassan S.; Mohammadi, Zohreh - In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 243 (2023) 2, pp. 125-152
conditional maximum likelihood methods are considered for the parameter estimation of the model. Moreover, simulation experiments …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014514104
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Forecasting long memory time series under a break in persistence
Heinen, Florian; Sibbertsen, Philipp; Kruse, Robinson - 2009
We consider the problem of forecasting time series with long memory when the memory parameter is subject to a structural break. By means of a large-scale Monte Carlo study we show that ignoring such a change in persistence leads to substantially reduced forecasting precision. The strength of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003899580
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Long memory modelling of inflation with stochastic variance and structural breaks
Bos, Charles S.; Koopman, Siem Jan; Ooms, Marius - 2007
We investigate changes in the time series characteristics of postwar U.S. inflation. In a model-based analysis the conditional mean of inflation is specified by a long memory autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average process and the conditional variance is modelled by a stochastic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373822
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Parameter driven multi-state duration models : simulated vs. approximate maximum likelihood estimation
Monteiro, André Antonio - 2008 - This version: February 15, 2008
Likelihood based inference for multi-state latent factor intensity models is hindered by the fact that exact closed-form expressions for the implied data density are not available. This is a common and well-known problem for most parameter driven dynamic econometric models. This paper reviews,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011374420
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On importance sampling for state space models
Jungbacker, Borus; Koopman, Siem Jan - 2005
and smoother and the simulation smoother which do not rely on a linear Gaussian observation equation. Furthermore, results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011348357
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Time series models with a common stochastic variance for analysing economic time series
Koopman, Siem Jan; Bos, Charles S. - 2002
The linear Gaussian state space model for which the common variance istreated as a stochastic time-varying variable is considered for themodelling of economic time series. The focus of this paper is on thesimultaneous estimation of parameters related to the stochasticprocesses of the mean part...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011327834
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Modelling and simulation : an overview
McAleer, Michael; Chan, Felix; Oxley, Les - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765832
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Optimal bandwidth selection in non-parametric spectral density estimation : review and simulation
Fortin, Ines - 1999
comparison is based on a small simulation study. The processes that are simulated are in the class of ARMA (5,5) processes. Based … on the simulation evidence, we suggest to use a slightly modified version of Buehlmann's (1996) iterative method …. -- window width ; bandwidth ; non-parametric spectral estimation ; simulation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009711652
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An information theoretic criterion for empirical validation of time series models
Lamperti, Francesco - 2015
Simulated models suffer intrinsically from validation and comparison problems. The choice of a suitable indicator quantifying the distance between the model and the data is pivotal to model selection. However, how to validate and discriminate between alternative models is still an open problem...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010490842
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Awareness of Crash Risk Improves Kelly Strategies in Simulated Financial Time Series
Gerlach, J-C - 2020
We simulate a simplified version of the price process including bubbles and crashes proposed in Kreuser and Sornette (2018). The price process is defined as a geometric random walk combined with jumps modelled by separate, discrete distributions associated with positive (and negative) bubbles....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836362