Extensive empirical studies on the rationality of expectations as defined by Muth have revolved around tests on a single series of forecast data, with results differing widely across studies. Rationality as an assessor characteristic has long been of interest in economic theory and practice....

In this article we provide evidence for a rational bubble in S\&P 500 stock prices by applying a test for changing persistence under fractional integration proposed by Sibbertsen and Kruse (2007). We find strong evidence for stationary long memory before the estimated change point in 1955 and a...

Dynamic rational inattention problems used to be difficult to solve. This paper provides simple, analytical results for dynamic rational inattention problems. We start from the benchmark rational inattention problem. An agent tracks a variable of interest that follows a Gaussian process. The...

We investigate the possibility of exploiting partial correlation graphs for identifying interpretable latent variables underlying a multivariate time series. It is shown how the collapsibility and separation properties of partial correlation graphs can be used to understand the relation between...