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The aggregation of individual random AR(1) models generally leads to an AR(∞∞) process. We provide two consistent …
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This paper undertakes a time series analysis of the Japanese divorce rate using annual data over the period 1964–2006. One of the key innovations of the paper is to use court decisions on divorce disputes to construct an index that seeks to measure how the probability of success in a divorce...
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This paper used cross-sectional aggregation as the inspiration for a model with long-range dependence that arises in …
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-sectional aggregation. Nonetheless, formal analysis regarding the effect that aggregation has on the long memory dynamics of temperature … aggregation may be exacerbating the long memory estimated in regional and global temperature data. The results are robust to the …
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We compare direct forecasts of HICP and HICP excluding energy and food in the euro area and five member countries to aggregated forecasts of their main components from large Bayesian VARs with a shared set of predictors. We focus on conditional point and density forecasts, in line with...
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