Under the framework of Shao (1993), I provide a theoretical analysis of the cross validation-based model selection for time series proposed by Racine (2000). I also consider a variant of the method that does not require the size of validation samples to be the same and find that it often...

The existing body of academic literature reveals that production, distribution, and consumption might be both consistently connected and geographically scattered. This requires assessing the spatial order of production–distribution–consumption cycle, within which exploring of spatial...

The recently advanced space-time-autoregressive (ST-AR) model is used to forecast U.S., regional and state violent and property crime rates. The disaggregate state (Florida) violent crime model includes murder, rape, robbery, and assault and the property crime model, burglary, larceny, and motor...

Carbon abatement efforts in China are penetrating to sub-national level. Zhejiang province, as the 4th wealthy region in China and important player in global market (e.g., textiles, cloth, petroleum and chemical products), lacks in-depth study of its climate change mitigation efforts, especially...

Cyclical dynamics at the regional level are investigated using newly developed time-series techniques that allow a decomposition of aggregate data into common trends and common cycles. We apply the common-trend/common-cycle representation to per capita personal income for the eight BEA regions...

Conditional distributions for the analysis of convergence are usually estimated using a standard kernel smoother but this is known to be biased. Hyndman et al. (1996) thus suggest a conditional density estimator with a mean function specified by a local polynomial smoother, i.e. one with better...

The distinction between transitory or permanent shocks to energy consumption is important not only for researchers but also for policymakers, financial investors, and business owners. This paper tests the stationarity of the electricity consumption of five main sectors (residential, public...

This paper develops a statistical model for measuring spatial interactions when estimating macroeconomic regimes and regime shifts. The model is applied to study the contagion and propagation of recessions in small regional economies in the United States from 1990 to 2015. The empirical analysis...

Turmoil in euro area once more forces EU authorities to rethink future of further monetary integration. One of the most commonly used criterions for successful monetary in contemporary research is business cycle synchronization (BCS). Though BCS has been vastly described at country level, not as...

The National Establishment Time Series (NETS) is a private sector source of U.S. business microdata. Researchers have used state-specific NETS extracts for many years, but relatively little is known about the accuracy and representativeness of the nationwide NETS sample. We explore the...