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Identifying the shocks behind business cycle asynchrony in Euroland
Trenkler, Carsten; Weber, Enzo - 2012
This paper investigates which shocks drive asynchrony of business cycles in the euro area. Thereby, it unites two strands of literature, those on common features and on structural VAR analysis. In particular, we show that the presence of a common cycle implies collinearity of structural impulse...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489953
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Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle
Bianchi, Francesco; Nicolò, Giovanni; Song, Dongho - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247995
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Robust inference intime-varying structural VAR models : the DC-Cholesky multivariate stochasticvolatility model
Hartwig, Benny - 2020
This paper investigates how the ordering of variables affects properties of the time-varying covariance matrix in the Cholesky multivariate stochastic volatility model.It establishes that systematically different dynamic restrictions are imposed whenthe ratio of volatilities is time-varying....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012250452
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Robust inference in time-varying structural VAR models : the DC-cholesky multivariate stochastic volatility model
Hartwig, Benny - 2020
This paper investigates how the ordering of variables affects properties of the time-varying covariance matrix in the Cholesky multivariate stochastic volatility model. It establishes that systematically different dynamic restrictions are imposed when the ratio of volatilities is time-varying....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012424283
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Detecting unemployment hysteresis : a simultaneous unobserved components model with Markov switching
Klinger, Sabine; Weber, Enzo - 2015
Wir konstruieren ein neues Modell unbeobachteter Komponenten mit Markov-Switching zur Analyse von Hysterese-Effekten, also der Verfestigung ursprünglich zyklischer Fluktuationen. Das Modell kombiniert die Bestandteile einer Trend-Zyklus Zerlegung, der Identifikation von gegenseitigen...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372431
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The direction, timing and causality relationships between the cyclical components of real and financial variables during the financial liberalization period in Turkey
İnsel, Aysu; Soytaş, Mehmet Ali; Gündüz, Seda - 2004 - Draft version.1
The purpose of this paper is the determination of sources and pattern of business cycle in Turkey throughout the period 1988-2002 using quarterly data. The question of the paper is "Has financial liberalization increased the fragility of the financial and real sides of the Turkish economy?". The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011529029
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RGAP: output gap estimation in R
Streicher, Sina - 2022
Assessing potential output and the output gap is essential for policy-making and fiscal surveillance. The European Commission proposes a production function methodology that involves the estimation of two classes of Gaussian state space models. This paper presents the R package RGAP which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013256541
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Oil price and economic growth : a long story?
Gadea, María Dolores; Gómez-Loscos, Ana; Montañés, … - In: Econometrics : open access journal 4 (2016) 4, pp. 1-28
This study investigates changes in the relationship between oil prices and the US economy from a long-term perspective. Although neither of the two series (oil price and GDP growth rates) presents structural breaks in mean, we identify different volatility periods in both of them, separately....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011649469
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Multiple filtering devices for the estimation of cyclical DSGE model
Canova, Fabio; Ferroni, Filippo - In: Quantitative economics : QE ; journal of the … 2 (2011) 1, pp. 73-98
We propose a method to estimate time invariant cyclical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models using the information provided by a variety of filters. We treat data filtered with alternative procedures as contaminated proxies of the relevant model-based quantities and estimate structural...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011755937
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Evidence and ideology in macroeconomics : the case of investment cycles
Hillinger, Claude - 2005
The paper reports the principal findings of a long term research project on the description and explanation of business cycles. The research strongly confirmed the older view that business cycles have large systematic components that take the form of investment cycles. These quasi-periodic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010440436