I expose the risk of false discoveries in the context of multiple treatment effects. A false discovery is a nonexistent effect that is falsely labeled as statistically significant by its individual t-value. Labeling nonexistent effects as statistically significant has wide-ranging academic and...

In duration analysis, the Mixed Proportional Hazard model is the most common choice among practitioners for the specification of the underlying hazard rate. One major drawback of this model is that the value of the frailty term (i.e. unobserved factors) is time-invariant. This paper introduces a...

We estimate a general microstructure model of the transitory and permanent impact of order flow on stock prices. Jumps are detected in both the transaction price (observation equation) and fundamental value (state equation). The model's parameters and variances are updated in real time. Prices...

Many existing extensions of the Engle and Russell's (1998) Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model in the literature are aimed at providing additional exibility either on the dynamics of the conditional duration model or the allowed shape of the hazard function, i.e. its two most...

We investigate price duration variance estimators that have long been neglected in the literature. We show i) how price duration estimators can be used for the estimation and forecasting of the integrated variance of an underlying semi-martingale price process and ii) how they are affected by a)...

We present the method of complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) and Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) for analyzing nonstationary financial time series. This noise-assisted approach decomposes any time series into a number of intrinsic mode functions, along with the...

In recent years, analysis of financial time series has focused largely on data related to market trading activity. Apart from modelling the conditional variance of returns within the GARCH family of models, presently attention has also been devoted to other market variables, especially volumes,...

This paper introduces an alternative testing procedure to test the distribution of the error term in the Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) class of models. In these models, the error term is normally interpreted as the standardized duration by which its probability distribution may have...

This paper shows how the dynamic linear model with fixed regressors can be efficiently estimated. This dynamic model can be used to distinguish spurious correlation from state dependence and we show that the integrated likelihood estimator is adaptive for any asymptotics with T increasing where...

The paper develops an asymptotically valid F test that is robust to spatial autocorrelation in a GMM framework. The test is based on the class of series covariance matrix estimators and fixed-smoothing asymptotics. The fixed-smoothing asymptotics and F approximation are established under mild...