A two-stage simulation-based framework is proposed to derive Identification Robust confidence sets by applying Indirect Inference, in the context of Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) processes for finite samples. Resulting objective functions are treated as test statistics, which are inverted...

We test for the presence of time-varying parameters (TVP) in the long-run dynamics of energy prices for oil, natural gas and coal, within a standard class of mean-reverting models. We also propose residual-based diagnostic tests and examine out-of-sample forecasts. In-sample LR tests support the...