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conditional maximum likelihood methods are considered for the parameter estimation of the model. Moreover, simulation experiments …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014514104
We consider the problem of forecasting time series with long memory when the memory parameter is subject to a structural break. By means of a large-scale Monte Carlo study we show that ignoring such a change in persistence leads to substantially reduced forecasting precision. The strength of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003899580
We investigate changes in the time series characteristics of postwar U.S. inflation. In a model-based analysis the conditional mean of inflation is specified by a long memory autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average process and the conditional variance is modelled by a stochastic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373822
Likelihood based inference for multi-state latent factor intensity models is hindered by the fact that exact closed … dynamic econometric models. This paper reviews, adapts and compares three different approaches for solving this problem. For …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011374420
We consider likelihood inference and state estimation by means of importance sampling for state space models with a … and smoother and the simulation smoother which do not rely on a linear Gaussian observation equation. Furthermore, results … are presented that lead to a more effective implementation of importance sampling for state space models. An illustration …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011348357
The linear Gaussian state space model for which the common variance istreated as a stochastic time-varying variable is considered for themodelling of economic time series. The focus of this paper is on thesimultaneous estimation of parameters related to the stochasticprocesses of the mean part...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011327834
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765832
comparison is based on a small simulation study. The processes that are simulated are in the class of ARMA (5,5) processes. Based … on the simulation evidence, we suggest to use a slightly modified version of Buehlmann's (1996) iterative method …. -- window width ; bandwidth ; non-parametric spectral estimation ; simulation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009711652
Simulated models suffer intrinsically from validation and comparison problems. The choice of a suitable indicator … between alternative models is still an open problem calling for further investigation, especially in light of the increasing … models' synthetic output replicates the properties of observable time series without the need to resort to any likelihood …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010490842
We simulate a simplified version of the price process including bubbles and crashes proposed in Kreuser and Sornette (2018). The price process is defined as a geometric random walk combined with jumps modelled by separate, discrete distributions associated with positive (and negative) bubbles....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836362