The number of Norwegian guest nights in Swedish hotels and cottages is studied. Aggregation of an integer-valued AR(1) model and a two-stage demand model underlies the empirical results. The parameters in the model are check-out probability, mean check-in and the probability of selecting the...

This study aims to refine unemployment forecasts by incorporating the degree of consensus in consumers’ expectations. With this objective, we first model the unemployment rate in eight European countries using the step-wise algorithm proposed by Hyndman and Khandakar (J Stat Softw...

In empirical work on multivariate financial time series, it is common to postulate a Multivariate GARCH model. We show that the popular Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of MGARCH models is very sensitive to outliers in the data. We propose to use robust M-estimators and provide...

We investigate changes in the time series characteristics of postwar U.S. inflation. In a model-based analysis the conditional mean of inflation is specified by a long memory autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average process and the conditional variance is modelled by a stochastic...

In this paper we study new nonlinear GARCH models mainly designed for time series with highly persistent volatility. For such series, conventional GARCH models have often proved unsatisfactory because they tend to exaggerate volatility persistence and exhibit poor forecasting ability. Our main...

The theory of conditional copulas provides a means of constructing flexible multivariate density models, allowing for time-varying conditional densities of each individual variable, and for time-varying conditional dependence between the variables. Further, the use of copulas in constructing...

The linear Gaussian state space model for which the common variance is treated as a stochastic time-varying variable is considered for the modelling of economic time series. The focus of this paper is on the simultaneous estimation of parameters related to the stochastic processes of the mean...

Detrending within structural vector autoregressions (SVAR) is directly linked to the shock identification. We investigate the consequences of trend misspecification in an SVAR using both standard real business cycle models and bi-variate SVARs as data generating processes. Our bias decomposition...

Standard price discovery measures, particularly information shares, rely on the concept of co-integration for non-stationary time series. For the definition of information shares, the existence of a permanent impact of innovations is crucial, as these shares measure the relative contribution of...

The central banks introduce and implement the monetary and financial stabilities policies, going from the accurate estimations of national macro-financial indicators such as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Analyzing the dependence of the GDP on the time, the central banks accurately estimate...