We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the variance of the average, but rather the average of the variances of the individual forecasts that incorporate idiosyncratic risks. With a slight reformulation of the loss function...

We propose a new test for structural changes in large dimensional factor models via a discrete Fourier transform (DFT) approach. If structural changes occur, the conventional principal component analysis fails to estimate common factors and factor loadings consistently. The estimated residuals...

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the variance of the average, but rather the average of the variances of the individual forecasts that incorporate idiosyncratic risks. With a slight reformulation of the loss function...

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker who has access to a number of expert forecasts, the uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a standard factor decomposition of a panel of forecasts, we...

We develop tests for structural breaks of factor loadings in dynamic factor models. We focus on the joint null hypothesis that all factor loadings are constant over time. Because the number of factor loading parameters goes to infinity as the sample size grows, conventional tests cannot be used....

This paper proposes a new likelihood-based panel cointegration rank test which extends the test of Örsal & Droge (2012) (henceforth Panel SL test) to allow for cross-sectional dependence. The dependence is modelled by unobserved common factors which affect the variables in each cross-section...

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker who has access to a number of expert forecasts, the uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a standard factor decomposition of a panel of forecasts, we...

This paper, using the Bewley (1979) transformation of the autoregressive distributed lag model, proposes a novel pooled Bewley (PB) estimator of long-run coefficients for dynamic panels with heterogeneous short-run dynamics, in the same setting as the widely used Pooled Mean Group (PMG)...

A new test is proposed for the null of absence of serial correlation. The test uses a data-driven smoothing parameter. The resulting test statistic has a standard limit distribution under the null. The smoothing parameter is calibrated to achieve rate-optimality against several classes of...

We introduce a statistical test for comparing the predictive accuracy of competing copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts, based on the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion (KLIC). The test is valid under general conditions: in particular it allows for parameter estimation...