This study develops an improved fuzzy time series method via adjustment of the latest value factor and previous error patterns. There are many fuzzy extended applications in the literature, and the fuzzy time series is one successful implementation of fuzzy logical modelling. Fuzzy time series...

Forecasts play a critical role at inflation targeting central banks, such as the Bank of England. Breaks in the forecast performance of a model can potentially incur important policy costs. Commonly used statistical procedures, however, implicitly put a lot of weight on type I errors (or false...

Since becoming a democratic country in the late 1990s, Indonesia has been changing into a more promising countries with a remarkable reduction in poverty by more than 50% during the last decade. To achieve a developed or high-income country, Indonesia must grow by 8% to 9% annually with huge...