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different types of econometric models for oil price forecasting. Several specifications have been proposed in the economic …). The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that should … common sample and common data. Fourth, we evaluate the forecasting performance of each selected model using static and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014053252
forecasting daily electricity prices in two of the main European markets, Germany and Italy. We do that by means of mixed …-frequency models, introducing a Bayesian approach to reverse unrestricted MIDAS models (RU-MIDAS). We study the forecasting accuracy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011987142
obvious advantage of financial and energy market data in forecasting oil prices is their availability in real time on a daily … monthly inventories. We conclude that typically not much is lost by ignoring high-frequency financial data in forecasting the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010336456
obvious advantage of financial data in forecasting oil prices is their availability in real time on a daily or weekly basis … lost by ignoring high-frequency financial data in forecasting the monthly real price of oil. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010203447
global imbalances. -- oil price ; exchange rate ; forecasting ; multivariate time series models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009731788
Forecasting oil prices has been of great interests for macroeconomists in the recent years. Our article contributes to … this strand of the literature by using a dynamic model averaging (DMA) method to improve forecasting accuracy of real oil …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024889
been applied to oil price forecasting, by allowing for sequentially updating of time-varying combination weights …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012544443
Romania these predictions being provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting (Dobrescu macromodel), National Commission for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010439151
Measuring and modeling financial volatility is the key to derivative pricing, asset allocation and risk management.The recent availability of high-frequency data allows for refined methods in this field.In particular, more precise measures for the daily or lower frequency volatility can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003727640
We propose a novel time-varying parameters mixed-frequency dynamic factor model which is integrated into a dynamic model averaging framework for macroeconomic nowcasting. Our suggested model can efficiently deal with the nature of the real-time data flow as well as parameter uncertainty and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119825