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In this paper, we examine the results of GDP trend-cycle decompositions from the estimation of bivariate unobserved components models that allow for correlated trend and cycle innovations. Three competing variables are considered in the bivariate setup along with GDP: the unemployment rate, the...
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confidence index, and the Duke/CFO survey responses. We analyze the manner in which the three external measures reflect biases …
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This article investigates the construction of skewness-adjusted confidence intervals and joint confidence bands for …
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