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The paper presents an approach to forecast competitors' market share in the banking industry. Multivariate linear time series analysis was applied to a state space model with stochastic components. Three time series were interrelated as two exogenous variables and one endogenous variable. The...
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breaks) in the volatility of financial time series. Comparative study of three techniques: ICSS, NPCPM and Cheng's algorithm … breaks in volatility, while Cheng's technique works well only when a single break occurs. …
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We estimate a general microstructure model of the transitory and permanent impact of order flow on stock prices. Jumps are detected in both the transaction price (observation equation) and fundamental value (state equation). The model's parameters and variances are updated in real time. Prices...
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