We develop a Bayesian approach for parsimoniously estimating the correlation structure of the errors in a multivariate stochastic volatility model. Since the number of parameters in the joint correlation matrix of the return and volatility errors is potentially very large, we impose a prior that...

Forecast combination has been proven to be a very important technique to obtain accurate predictions for various applications in economics, finance, marketing and many other areas. In many applications, forecast errors exhibit heavy-tailed behaviors for various reasons. Unfortunately, to our...

In this paper we describe and apply the methods of Symbolic Time Series Analysis to an experimental framework. We discuss data symbolization as a tool for identifying temporal patterns in experimental data and use symbol sequence statistics in a model strategy. In particular, we introduce a...

The traditional time series methodology requires at least a preliminary transformation of the data to get stationarity. On the other hand, robust Bayesian dynamic models (RBDMs) do not assume a regular pattern or stability of the underlying system but can include points of statement breaks. In...

The endo-exo problem lies at the heart of statistical identi fication in many fields of science, and is often plagued by spurious strong-and-long memory due to improper treatment of trends, shocks and shifts in the data. A class of models that has shown to be useful in discerning exogenous and...

In this paper I describe and apply the methods of Symbolic Time Series Analysis (STSA) to an experimental framework. The idea behind Symbolic Time Series Analysis is simple: the values of a given time series data are transformed into a finite set of symbols obtaining a finite string. Then, we...

We summarize the literature on the effectiveness of combining forecasts by assessing the conditions under which combining is most valuable. Using data on the six U.S. Presidential elections from 1992 through 2012, we then report the reduction in error obtained by averaging forecasts within and...

This paper focuses on survey expectations and discusses their uses for testing and modelling of expectations. Alternative models of expectations formation are reviewed and the importance of allowing for heterogeneity of expectations is emphasized. A weak form of the rational expectations...

This paper uses fractional integration methods to measure the degree of persistence in historical annual data on the world population over the period 1800-2016. The analysis is carried out for the original series, and also for its log transformation and its growth rate. The results indicate that...