We analyze quarterly occupation-level data from the US Current Population Survey for 1976-2013. Based on common cyclical employment dynamics, we identify two clusters of occupations that roughly correspond to the widely discussed notion of "routine" and "non-routine" jobs. After decomposing the...

A new FIR filter is designed to date U.S. recessions with the unemployment rate and the Conference Board employment trend index. Our approach is simple but one can see from the curve the dynamic process how the economy moves from one business cycle to the next. We also present a new use of the...

We propose a multivariate Bayesian state space model to identify potential growth and the output gap consistent with the dynamics of the underlying production sectors of the economy and those of inflation and the labor market. Our approach allows us to decompose economic fluctuations and...

Multivariate analysis can help to focus on economic phenomena, including trend and cyclical movements. To allow for potential correlation with seasonality, the present paper studies a three component multivariate unobserved component model, focusing on the case of quarterly data and showing that...

A coincidence in time between the volatility break associated with the "Great Moderation" and large changes in the pattern of conditional and unconditional correlations between output, hours and labor productivity was detected by Galí and Gambetti (2009). We provide a novel explanation for...

Markov models introduce persistence in the mixture distribution. In time series analysis, the mixture components relate to different persistent states characterizing the state-specific time series process. Model specification is discussed in a general form. Emphasis is put on the functional form...

Wir konstruieren ein neues Modell unbeobachteter Komponenten mit Markov-Switching zur Analyse von Hysterese-Effekten, also der Verfestigung ursprünglich zyklischer Fluktuationen. Das Modell kombiniert die Bestandteile einer Trend-Zyklus Zerlegung, der Identifikation von gegenseitigen...

Seasonality in macroeconomic time series can obscure movements of other components in a series that are operationally more important for economic and econometric analyses. Indeed, in practice one often prefers to work with seasonally adjusted data to assess the current state of the economy and...

The main contribution of this work consist on studying sales behaviour and their relationship with local market conditions like labor market indicators through a time series principal component analysis. We study the correlation structure of a large database on prices and found that all product...

This paper uses a rich weekly price database from the largest supermarket in Uruguay to analyze the relationship among prices, micro-level sales, and business cycle conditions. On average, 7% of products were on sale each month, and we show a positive and statistically significant but small...