We consider a class of infinite‐horizon dynamic Markov economic models in which the parameters of utility function, production function, and transition equations change over time. In such models, the optimal value and decision functions are time‐inhomogeneous: they depend not only on state...

The Hodrick-Prescott filter is a popular tool in macroeconomics for decomposing a time series into a smooth trend and a business cycle component. The last few years have witnessed global events, such as the Global Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine, that have had...

Modelling the growth rate of economic time series with a Markov switching process in their mean and/or their variance allows to take account of two facts that are often encountered in such series, namely that the periods in which each mean is prevailing differ in their duration and that the...

We show how to use a simple perturbation method to solve non-linear rational expectation models. Drawing from the applied mathematics literature we propose a method consisting of series expansions of the non-linear system around a known solution. The variables are represented in terms of their...

In this paper we revisit the methodological aspects of the issue of spurious cycles: using the well-established clinometric data, we apply an empirical strategy to identify spurious periodicities and cross-validate the results. The analysis of cyclical fluctuations involves numerous challenges,...

This paper proposes a conceptualization of business cycle fluctuations in which the role of financial conditions and nonlinear dynamics are explicitly incorporated. We highlight the role of investment demand in driving economic fluctuations, consider its endogenous dynamic interactions with...

Research about narratives' role in economics is scarce, while real word experience and research in other sciences suggest they matter a lot. This article proposes a view and methodology for quantifying the epidemiology of media narratives relevant to business cycles in the US, Japan, and Europe....

Our study aims to bridge the gap between contemporary studies on financial cycles and the financial instability hypothesis in the form of a Minsky cycle (Minsky, 1963). Paper contribution range from explored causality links (financial cycles cause business cycles) to the empirical estimation of...