Given the increased importance of fiscal monitoring, this study amends the existing literature in the field of intra-annual fi scal data in two main dimensions. First, we use quarterly fi scal data to forecast a very disaggregated set of fiscal series at annual frequency. This makes the analysis...

Problem: How to help practitioners, academics, and decision makers use experimental research findings to substantially reduce forecast errors for all types of forecasting problems. Methods: Findings from our review of forecasting experiments were used to identify methods and principles that lead...

Among the different criteria used for testing sustainability of public debt, the econometric approach determines whether a government is able to sustain its budget deficits without defaulting on its debt. In this contribution, by linking three different motives proposed respectively by Trehan...

This paper shows how public debt repurchases can be used to reduce the costs of debt service, under the hypothesis of asymmetry of information between the government and the private sector. At the beginning of a fiscal stabilisation, for example, a government typically does not enjoy full...

The world economy has been struck by Covid-19 the same way people are struck by a lightning, fast and without warning, leaving nations out to dry on little to no reserves on their crucial supply side. Consequently, over the past year, economies shrunk, production drastically diminished, and...

We analyze public debt sustainability in Serbia between 2004Q3 and 2014Q3. The results of our analysis are: i) public debt to GDP ratio is on unsustainable path, according to the results of unit root tests; ii) the response of primary fiscal balance to public debt accumulation is insufficient to...

We focus on the response of primary fiscal balance to interest payments and borrowing costs on Serbian public debt before and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Our analysis reveals: i) policy makers financed up to 50% of each percentage point increase in interest payments to GDP...

In this paper, we investigate the causal effects of public and private debts on U.S. output dynamics. We estimate a battery of Cointegrated Structural Vector Autoregressive models, and we identify structural shocks by employing Independent Component Analysis, a data-driven technique which avoids...

The paper presents the results of a reconstruction of the Italian public debt series since national unification. Computations use today's statistical methodology to obtain a database consistent with the national accounts. The reference sector is general government, not the state sector, as in...