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We analyse the cross-country dimension of financial cycles by studying cyclical co-movements in credit, house prices, equity prices and interest rates across the G7 economies. We use wavelet-based statistics to assess at which frequencies cyclical fluctuations and their crosscountry co-movements...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012020175
We study the cross-country dimension of financial cycles for six euro area countries using three different methodologies: principal component analysis, synchronicity and similarity measures and wavelet analysis. We find that equity prices and interest rates display synchronization across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011809188
Our study aims to bridge the gap between contemporary studies on financial cycles and the financial instability hypothesis in the form of a Minsky cycle (Minsky, 1963). Paper contribution range from explored causality links (financial cycles cause business cycles) to the empirical estimation of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012271844
We show that one should not use the one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP-1s) as the real-time version of the two-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP-2s): First, in terms of the extracted cyclical component, HP-1s fails to remove low-frequency fluctuations to the same extent as HP-2s. Second,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012180612
of a typical recession, leading to inconsistencies, for example, with the NBER business cycle chronology. Nonetheless, I …-to-GDP ratio indicates that imbalances prior to the global financial crisis started earlier than shown by the Basel III creditto …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011792295
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014251829
We analyze cyclical co-movement in credit, house prices, equity prices, and long-term interest rates across 17 advanced economies. Using a time-varying multi-level dynamic factor model and more than 130 years of data, we analyze the dynamics of co-movement at different levels of aggregation and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011987786
The authors analyze cyclical co-movement in credit, house prices, equity prices, and long-term interest rates across 17 advanced economies. Using a time-varying multi-level dynamic factor model and more than 130 years of data, they analyze the dynamics of co-movement and compare recent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011992406
I show that the detrending of financial variables with the Hodrick and Prescott (1981, 1997) (HP) and band-pass filters leads to spurious cycles. I find that distortions become especially severe when considering medium-term cycles, i.e., cycles that exceed the duration of regular business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011813473
significant spatial spillovers between small regional economies, meaning that shocks to regions are expected to be higher, when … following the Great Recession. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011567460