Central banks actively engage in sterilized foreign exchange market intervention despite numerous empirical studies indicating that these operations do not systematically affect the exchange rate. Are these policies misguided and central bankers irrational? Or is evidence showing the...

There is rarely another field in economics where the prevailing theoretical models have been contradicted so strongly by empirical evidence as exchange rate economics. This study therefore attempts to investigate exchange rate dynamics in an exploratory way. It is first demonstrated that the...

We explain the currency carry trade performance using an asset pricing model in which factor loadings are regime-dependent rather than constant. Empirical results show that a typical carry trade strategy has much higher exposure to the stock market and is mean-reverting in regimes of high FX...

This paper investigate the time series properties and predictability of daily percentage changes in the Pakistani rupee exchange rate with respect to the currencies of major trading partner country USA. The daily data is used for the time period of October 1988 to April 2012. In this study, we...

This paper evaluates the performance of carry trade strategies with macro fundamentals in a Markov switching dynamic factor augmented regression framework and compares the performance statistics with the benchmark model of a random walk and momentum strategy. I make simulations with the Japanese...

This paper investigates the intraday effects of unannounced foreign exchange intervention on bid-ask exchange rate spreads using official intraday intervention data provided by the Danish central bank. Our starting point is a simple theoretical model of the bid-ask spread which we use to...

A sentiment-based model of the exchange rate is proposed to understand the forward premium puzzle. Agents over- or underestimate the growth rate of the economy. All else equal, when perceived domestic growth is higher than perceived foreign growth, the domestic interest rate is higher than the...

We develop a new framework to characterize the dynamics of triangular (three-point) arbitrage in electronic foreign exchange markets. To examine the properties of arbitrage, we propose a wavelet-based regression approach that is robust to estimation errors, measurement bias and persistence....

This paper modelled the volatility persistence and asymmetry of naira-dollar exchange rate in interbank and Bureau de Change (BDC) using monthly data between January 2004 and November 2017. The study employed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity [GARCH (1,1)], Thresh- old...

In recent years, advances in the field of unit root tests helped topartially solve the first purchasing power parity puzzle. Non-linearmean-reversion tests with real exchange rates were able to reject thenull of a unit root (indicating mean reversion) in significantly morecases than the standard...