The present study compares the performance of the long memory FIGARCH model, with that of the short memory GARCH specification, in the forecasting of multi-period Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) across 20 stock indices worldwide. The dataset is comprised of daily data covering...

Fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average (ARFIMA) and Heterogeneou Autoregressive (HAR) models are estimated and their ability to predict the one-trading-day-ahead CAC40 realized volatility is investigated. In particular, this paper follows three steps: (i) The optimal sampling...

Introduction to high frequency financial modelling -- Intra-day realized volatility measures -- Methods of volatility estimation and forecasting -- Multiple model comparison and hypothesis framework construction -- Realized volatility forecasting - applications -- Recent methods: a review --...

In this paper we test for the presence of fractional integration, or long memory, in the daily returns of exchange rates using ARFIMA(p,d,q) models. We consider 34 exchange rates against the US dollar (USD) covering the period April 1991 to April 2006. The results suggest that 17 exchange rates...