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simultaneous analysis and forecasting of interest rates of different maturities. The Nelson–Siegel model has been recently …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373825
-of-sample forecasting of using alternative estimators of the DFM under various sources of potential misspecification. In particular, we …, but it matters when the objective is out-of-sample forecasting. …
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A novel class of dimension reduction methods is combined with a stochastic multi-factor panel regression-based state-space model in order to model the dynamics of yield curves whilst incorporating regression factors. This is achieved via Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis (PPCA) in which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011887659
To simultaneously consider mixed-frequency time series, their joint dynamics, and possible structural changes, we introduce a time-varying parameter mixed-frequency VAR. To keep our approach from becoming too complex, we implement time variation parsimoniously: only the intercepts and a common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011903709
The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391543
uncertainty when forecasting the term structure of U.S. interest rates. We start off by analyzing and comparing the forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014196386
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. To evaluate ex-ante forecasting performance for particular rates, different forecast features such as mean squared errors …-ante forecasting ; EURIBOR swap rates ; term structure ; directional accuracy ; big hit ability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003636128