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trend risk and population basis risk. In particular, the cross- and auto-correlations between the innovations of the latent … uncorrelated. This permits us to disentangle trend risk and population basis risk, thereby sparing us from the need to use a …
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We consider the basic problem of refi tting a time series over a finite period of time and formulate it as a stochastic dynamic program. By changing the underlying Markov decision process we are able to obtain a model that at optimality considers historical data as well as forecasts of future...
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