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We propose a new approach to deal with structural breaks in time series models. The key contribution is an alternative dynamic stochastic specification for the model parameters which describes potential breaks. After a break new parameter values are generated from a so-called baseline prior...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011383033
Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125
logistic auto-regressive processes, change over time and their dynamics are possible driven by the past forecasting … performances of the predictive densities. For illustrative purposes we apply it to combine White Noise and GARCH models to forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013114729
We contribute to the empirical debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analysing the features of the relationship between money growth and inflation in a Bayesian Markov Switching framework for a set of four countries, the US, the UK, the Euro area and Japan, over an estimation period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010425829
We propose a new approach to deal with structural breaks in time series models. The key contribution is an alternative dynamic stochastic specification for the model parameters which describes potential breaks. After a break new parameter values are generated from a so-called baseline prior...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130370
We propose a new algorithm which allows easy estimation of Vector Autoregressions (VARs) featuring asymmetric priors and time varying volatilities, even when the cross sectional dimension of the system N is particularly large. The algorithm is based on a simple triangularisation which allows to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011389735
We extend the literature on economic forecasting by constructing a mixed-frequency time-varying parameter vector … competitors. In particular, inflation forecasts benefit from this new forecasting approach. Finally, we assess the models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011962204
This paper provides a detailed assessment of the real-time forecast accuracy of a wide range of vector autoregressive models (VAR) that allow for both structural change and indicators sampled at different frequencies. We extend the literature by evaluating a mixed-frequency time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154665
logistic autoregressive processes, change over time and their dynamics are possible driven by the past forecasting performances … of the predictive densities. For illustrative purposes we apply it to combine White Noise and GARCH models to forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011386476
innovations have been well investigated. In contrast, the forecasting implications of specifying UC models with different state … studies adopting UC models for forecasting purposes. Four correlation structures for errors are entertained: orthogonal … and their connection with forecasting are discussed within a Bayesian framework. As perfectly correlated innovations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011809478