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Legal and illegal markets often coexist. In theory, marginal legalization can either substitute for the remaining … parallel market, or complement it via scale effects. I study migrants crossing without prior authorization at the US southwest … analyze a monthly time-series on the full universe of 10,658,497 inadmissible migrants encountered from October 2011 through …
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We summarize the literature on the effectiveness of combining forecasts by assessing the conditions under which combining is most valuable. Using data on the six U.S. Presidential elections from 1992 through 2012, we then report the reduction in error obtained by averaging forecasts within and...
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