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We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is that investors use different forecasting models, and hence assess uncertainty differently. As economic conditions deteriorate, uncertainty rises and investors' opinions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011721618
We examine the potential of ChatGPT, and other large language models, in predicting stock market returns using sentiment analysis of news headlines. We use ChatGPT to indicate whether a given headline is good, bad, or irrelevant news for firms' stock prices. We then compute a numerical score and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014351271
In this study, we apply a rolling window approach to wavelet-filtered (denoised) S&P500 returns (2000–2020) to obtain time varying Hurst exponents. We analyse the dynamics of the Hurst exponents by applying statistical tests (e.g., for stationarity, Gaussianity and self-similarity), a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013229642
(GMM) estimation are both suitable for MSM-t models, (ii) empirical panel forecasts of MSM-t models show an improvement …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003864486
Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation procedure to cope with the documented difficulties of previous methodologies. We … foreign exchange markets. -- Random Lognormal cascades ; GMM estimation ; best linear forecasting ; volatility of financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009389845
We perform a comprehensive examination of the recursive, comparative predictive performance of a number of linear and non-linear models for UK stock and bond returns. We estimate Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth transition autoregressive (STR) regime switching models,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136656
We propose a new approach to imposing economic constraints on forecasts of the equity premium. Economic constraints are used to modify the posterior distribution of the parameters of the predictive return regression in a way that better allows the model to learn from the data. We consider two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013064939
-sample estimation using the ratio levels reveals results that do not accord with economic intuition. In contrast, using the cyclical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012919219
The nature of the relation between stock returns and the three monetary variables of interest rates (bond yields), inflation and money supply growth, while oft studied, is one that remains unclear. We argue that the nature of the relation changes over time, and this variation is largely driven...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012813273
Models based on factors such as size, value, or momentum are ubiquitous in asset pricing. Therefore, portfolio allocation and risk management require estimates of the volatility of these factors. While realized volatility has become a standard tool for liquid individual assets, this measure is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011860248