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Qualitative survey responses and production over the business cycle
Lindström, Tomas - 2000
An examination of Swedish manufacturing data on real output and qualitative business tendency survey (BTS) responses from 1968 through 1998 reveals that survey-based attitude data typically improve the fit of simple autoprojective models of manufacturing output growth. It also turns out that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584039
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Time series properties of the German monthly production index
Flaig, Gebhard - 2003
The production index is an important indicator for assessing the cyclical state of the economy. Unfortunately, the monthly time series is contaminated by many noisy components like seasonal variations, calendar and vacation effects. Only part of those nuisance components are explicitly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011514105
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Productivity in the Spanish regions during the recent economic cycles
Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón - 2011 - Very preliminary version, June 2011
behavior of productivity during expansions will be analyzed for twenty production branches by applying the methodology proposed … by Leamer (2007), based on the decomposition of contributions to the growth of the productivity of each of these branches … productivity during recessions as well as those that have created an important stimulus to productivity during expansions. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011555811
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Improving output gap estimation : a bottom-up approach
Rathke, Alexander; Streicher, Sina - 2023
We propose a multivariate Bayesian state space model to identify potential growth and the output gap consistent with the dynamics of the underlying production sectors of the economy and those of inflation and the labor market. Our approach allows us to decompose economic fluctuations and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014427292
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Evidence and ideology in macroeconomics : the case of investment cycles
Hillinger, Claude - 2005
mathematical tool was also used to explain the international convergence of cycles. I argue that the theory of investment cycles …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010440436
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Business cycles, financial conditions and nonlinearities
Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan; Sündal, Doğuhan - 2020
This paper proposes a conceptualization of business cycle fluctuations in which the role of financial conditions and nonlinear dynamics are explicitly incorporated. We highlight the role of investment demand in driving economic fluctuations, consider its endogenous dynamic interactions with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012243059
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Are These Classical Business Cycles?
Reiter, Michael; Woitek, Ulrich - 2000
The aim of this paper is to test formally the classical business cycle hypothesis, using data from industrialized countries for the time period since 1960. The hypothesis is characterized by the view that the cyclical structure in GDP is concentrated in the investment series: fixed investment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014173801
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Recession propagation in small regional economies : spatial spillovers and endogenous clustering
Shibaev, Sergei S. - 2016
This paper develops a statistical model for measuring spatial interactions when estimating macroeconomic regimes and regime shifts. The model is applied to study the contagion and propagation of recessions in small regional economies in the United States from 1990 to 2015. The empirical analysis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011567460
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Forecast errors and the macroeconomy : a non-linear relationship?
Fritsche, Ulrich; Döpke, Jörg - 2006 - This version: February 2006
The paper analyses reasons for departures from strong rationality of growth and inflation forecasts based on annual observations from 1963 to 2004. We rely on forecasts from the joint forecast of the so-called "six leading" forecasting institutions in Germany and argue that violations of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010426366
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On adjusting the one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter
Wolf, Elias; Mokinski, Frieder; Schüler, Yves - 2020
We show that one should not use the one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP-1s) as the real-time version of the two-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP-2s): First, in terms of the extracted cyclical component, HP-1s fails to remove low-frequency fluctuations to the same extent as HP-2s. Second,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012180612