We present a framework for interpretation of the empirical results of New Keynesian models of inflation dynamics. Both the rational expectations solution of the structural New Keynesian Phillips curve, NKPC, and the reduced form VAR analysis of the multivariate time series properties give...

This paper is an empirical study of the links between monetary variables and inflation based on Cagan`s equation and its rational expectations solution, when the forcing variable is a fractionally integrated process. As demonstrated by Hamilton and Whiteman, the existence of bubbles and other...

This paper proposes a contemporaneous smooth transition threshold autoregressive model (C-STAR) as a modification of the smooth transition threshold autoregressive model surveyed in Terasvirta (1998). Because it uses a forward-looking approach to weight the regimes, in contrast to the typical...

This paper revisits the Kareken-Wallace model of exchange rate formation in a two-country overlapping generations world. Following the seminal paper by Arifovic (Journal of Political Economy, 104, 1996, 510-541) we investigate a dynamic version of the model in which agents' decision rules are...

Survey data of forecasts of the housing market may provide a particularly rich data nvironment for researchers and policymakers to study developments in housing markets. Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125, 2005), we studied the properties of a large...

We propose a continuous-time heterogeneous agent model consisting of fundamental, momentum, and contrarian traders to explain the significant time series momentum. We show that the market under-reacts in short-run and over-reacts in long-run when momentum traders dominate the market, which...

In this paper we evaluate the empirical relevance of learning by private agents in an estimated medium–scale DSGE model. We replace the standard rational expectation assumption in the Smets and Wouters (2007) model by a constant gain learning mechanism. If agents know the correct structure of...

This paper examines the main drawbacks of technical analysis. Although this is widely used by practitioners, from an academic perspective it can only be seen as a form of "voodoo finance". In particular, it runs into the following pitfalls: Subjectivity; Doubtful assumptions; Unjustified...

Economic policies are generally formulated on the basis of data available in real time, which might subsequently be revised. Implicitly, the possibility of data revisions creates an element of uncertainty around the very same data driving policy decisions. Given that such uncertainty could be...