rate and the inflation rate. Our estimation method uses real-time data in these rates — as did the FOMC — and requires no a … natural rate of unemployment. Unlike other approaches, our estimation method allows for possible feedback in the relationship …

rate and the inflation rate. Our estimation method uses real-time data in these rates - as did the FOMC - and requires no a … natural rate of unemployment. Unlike other approaches, our estimation method allows for possible feedback in the relationship …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … in a forecaster's toolkit. We base these conclusions on an extensive forecast evaluation over 1994 - 2018, an … estimated slack or by estimates from international economic institutions; (iii) external variables do not bring forecast gains …

literature was found to have promising forecasting abilities, it is possible to further improve the performance if the … coefficient adjustment. With this calibration of the Kalman filter model the short-term out-ofsample forecasting accuracy can be …

with the slope factor. Slope predicts changes in future interest rates and forecast revisions of professional forecasters …

Zentralbank das Risiko für die verbleibenden privaten Anleihegläubiger erhöhen. Dies mag zunächst mit der Beobachtung unvereinbar …