relationship between a change in trend growth rates and forecast bias, as suggested in the literature, breaks down when only …-cycle states. We show that forecasts for recessions are subject to a large negative systematic forecast error (forecasters … overestimate growth), while forecasts for recoveries are subject to a positive systematic forecast error. Forecasts made for …

volatility, customer demand is generally changing, and ignoring this uncertainty could lead to under or over-estimation of … before the depletion of stocks due to the lead time between the ordering point and delivery. Therefore, to meet demand while … optimizing the cost of the inventory system, firms must forecast future demands to address ordering uncertainties. Traditionally …