This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for … uncertainty as well as disagreement among CPI inflation forecasters to account for different dimensions of uncertainty. Based on a … uncertainty and disagreement among exchange rate forecasters and identify a strong relationship between them. …

uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a … standard factor decomposition of a panel of forecasts, we show that the uncertainty of a typical forecaster can be expressed as … some previously used measures significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

Can information on macroeconomic uncertainty improve the forecast accuracy for key macroeconomic time series for the US …? Since previous studies have demonstrated that the link between the real economy and uncertainty is subject to nonlinearities …, I assess the predictive power of macroeconomic uncertainty in both linear and nonlinear Bayesian VARs. For the latter I …