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Trend-cycle decomposition of output and euro area inflation forecasts : a real-time approach based on model combination
Guérin, Pierre; Maurin, Laurent; Mohr, Matthias - 2011
; Markov-switching ; Auxiliary information ; Model averaging ; Inflation forecast ; Real-time analysis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009380402
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Trend-cycle decomposition of output and euro area inflation forecasts : a real-time approach based on model combination
Guérin, Pierre; Maurin, Laurent; Mohr, Matthias - In: Macroeconomic dynamics 19 (2015) 2, pp. 363-393
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011308645
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Bond risk premia forecasting : a simple approach for extracting macroeconomic information from a panel of indicators
Audrino, Francesco; Corsi, Fulvio; Filipova, Kameliya - In: Econometric reviews 35 (2016) 1/4, pp. 232-256
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011549916
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Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle
Dovern, Jonas; Jannsen, Nils - 2015
-cycle states. We show that forecasts for recessions are subject to a large negative systematic forecast error (forecasters … overestimate growth), while forecasts for recoveries are subject to a positive systematic forecast error. Forecasts made for … expansions have, if anything, a small systematic forecast error for large forecast horizons. When we link information about the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010486869
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Adaptive inflation expectations under structural changes : the case of Finland
Junttila, Juha - 1997
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000977075
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Trend-Cycle Decomposition of Output and Euro Area Inflation Forecasts : A Real-Time Approach Based on Model Combination
Guerin, Pierre - 2011
The paper focuses on the estimation of the euro area output gap. We construct model-averaged measures of the output gap in order to cope with both model uncertainty and parameter instability that are inherent to trend-cycle decomposition models of GDP. We first estimate nine models of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120226
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The Combination of Forecasts : An Application of a Time-Varying Simple Weighting Method to Inflation Forecasts in Turkey
Saz, Gökhan - 2011
the exhaustive literature of forecast combinations and apply our newly developed combination method to test for the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013124997
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Forecasting inflation by using the sub-groups of both CPI and WPI : evidence from auto regression (AR) and ARIMA models
Ahmed, Rizwan Raheem; Štreimikienė, Dalia; Ghauri, … - In: Romanian journal of economic forecasting 24 (2021) 2, pp. 144-161
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012587203
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The expectational effects of news in business cycles : evidence from forecast data
Miyamoto, Wataru; Nguyen, Thuy Lan - In: Journal of monetary economics 116 (2020), pp. 184-200
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012495170
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Combined forecasts to improve Survey of Profession Forecasters predictions for quarterly inflation in the U.S.A.
Bratu, Mihaela; Gavurova, Beata; Smrčka, Luboš - In: Economic research 30 (2017) 1,1, pp. 789-805
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012224097