The post-crisis environment has posed important challenges to standard forecasting models. In this paper, we exploit several combinations of a large-scale DSGE structural model with standard reduced-form methods such as (B)VAR (i.e. DSGE-VAR and Augmented-(B)VARDSGE methods) and assess their use...

This study examines the dynamic passthrough of oil price and exchange rate to inflation using a time-varying structural vector autoregressive (TVP-SVAR) model with data from 1995 M01 to 2021 M07. We accounted for 2008/2009 global financial crisis (GFC), the 2016 economic recession and the...

Exchange rate movements influence prices through numerous channels. In this paper we provide empirical evidence on pass-through of exchange rate movements into consumer prices. The pass-through depends on a number of factors, and its size may vary over time. In recent years, prices have...

Swedish import price determination is investigated using disaggregated monthly data from 1980:1 to 1995:05 for eight different industries. The cointegration analysis indicates two cointegrating relations, in all industries, between import prices, the exchange rate, world market prices and...

New Zealand and Australia have recently had large import price increases on the back of currency depreciations. Despite these large import price shocks, consumer prices have not risen as strongly as would be suggested by previously accepted relationships. The recent prolonged period of general...

Until recently, the trend in world capital markets has been toward increasing globalization. Recent events in Latin America and Asia have caused many in policy-making circles to question whether this trend should be wholly, or at least partially, reversed. It is commonly argued that?at a...

Introducing the approach by Masanao Aoki (1981) to time series econometrics, we show that the dynamics of symmetric linear possibly cointegrated two-country VAR models can be separated into two autonomous subsystems: the country averages and country differences, where the latter includes the...

Steinsson (2008) shows that real shocks that affect the New Keynesian Phillips curve explain the behavior of the real exchange rate in a sticky-price business cycle model. This paper reveals that these shocks are important for the volatility of the real exchange rate in the data. In a structural...

Traditional vector autoregressions derive impulse responses using iterative techniques that may compound specification errors. Local projection techniques are robust to this problem, and Monte Carlo evidence suggests they provide reliable estimates of the true impulse responses. We use local...