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mortality intensity is driven by an affine jump-diffusion (AJD) process. Advantages of an AJD specification of mortality … dynamics include the availability of closed-form expressions for survival probabilities afforded by an affine mortality … specification and the ease with which we can incorporate sudden positive and negative shocks in mortality dynamics, reflecting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014076956
This paper presents evidence on how mortality in Denmark is related to different socio-economic indicators. By use of … unique and extensive sample of the Danish population, we examine how mortality is related to factors such as education … the cause-specific mortality rates. Particularly, we find that the often found inverse correlation between socio …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014137094
This paper proposes a moment-matching method for approximating vector autoregressions by finite-state Markov chains. The Markov chain is constructed by targeting the conditional moments of the underlying continuous process. The proposed method is more robust to the number of discrete values and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010126857
Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that … mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing mortality … the empirical findings, we make the study of estimating and forecasting mortality rates based on a semi …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489251
Multi-population mortality forecasting has become an increasingly important area in actuarial science and demography …, as a means to avoid long-run divergence in mortality projection. This paper aims to establish a unified state …-space Bayesian framework to model, estimate and forecast mortality rates in a multi-population context. In this regard, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012832560
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We examine a trivariate time series model that is subject to a regime switch, where the shifts are governed by an unobserved, two-state variable that follows a Markov process. The analysis is performed in a Bayesian framework developed by Albert and Chib (1993), where the unobserved states are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013031069
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