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downside liquidity for corporate bonds. While the evidence of illiquidity on risk premium in the cross-section of corporate … bonds is mixed, the aggregate liquidity asymmetry has a high explanatory power for the time series of market returns. It is … statistically and economically more significant than the innovation in traditional roundtrip liquidity costs. Some evidence suggests …
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This paper develops a multivariate model for count time series, in which the time-varying intensity parameter determining the probability that an event occurs evolves according to general autoregressive score (GAS) models (see Creal et al., 2013; Harvey, 2013).The model is particularly suitable to...
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This paper presents the most comprehensive out-of-U.S.-sample examination of information variables and equity premium predictability by focusing on Canada to reassess the growing U.S.-based evidence casting doubt on predictability. Using monthly data for 36 variables from 1950 to 2013, we test...
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Previous studies use cross-sectional forecast dispersion in examining the relation between forecast dispersion and future stock returns and report an anomalous negative dispersion-return relation. This paper examines how time-series forecast dispersion is distinct in the relation to stock...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972903
This study examines the causal link between short interest ratio and equity market return and their respective impulse response functions. Based on the analysis of monthly data from 1931M6 to 2012M12, the results reveal that there is a causal link between NYSE short interest ratio and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013035005
A large set of macroeconomic variables have been suggested as equity risk premium predictors in the literature. This paper proposes a forecasting approach for the equity risk premium with two novel features. First, individual month-ahead forecasts are obtained from parsimonious threshold...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913585