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This paper develops a statistical model for measuring spatial interactions when estimating macroeconomic regimes and regime shifts. The model is applied to study the contagion and propagation of recessions in small regional economies in the United States from 1990 to 2015. The empirical analysis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011567460
causal inference and systematic sampling of stationary variables preserves the direction of causality. This paper examines … results. Quite contrary to the stationary case, this paper shows that systematic sampling of integrated series may induce … spurious causality. In particular, systematic sampling induces spurious bi-directional Granger causality among the variables if …
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Granger and Sims non-causality (GSNC) are compared to non-causality based on concepts popular in the microeconometrics and programme evaluation literature (potential outcome non-causality, PONC). GSNC is defined as a set of restrictions on joint distributions of random variables with observable...
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