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uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a … some previously used measures significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013251262
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765842
In periods of unusual weather, forecasters face a problem of interpreting economic data: Which part goes back to the underlying economic trend and which part arises from a special weather effect? In this paper, we discuss ways to disentangle weather-related from business cycle-related influences...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010473134
We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305389
In this paper we study what professional forecasters actually explain. We use spectral analysis and state space modeling to decompose economic time series into a trend, a business-cycle, and an irregular component. To examine which components are captured by professional forecasters we regress...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305773
In this study a comparative analysis of the forecasts accuracy for Spain (developed country) and Romania (developing country) was developed for the crisis period (2009 - 2013). The providers are national forecasters: Bank of Spain and FUNCAS (Spanish Savings Banks Foundation) for Spain and two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011298802
We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013017623
uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a … some previously used measures significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012405456
forecast updates after each data release. Indeed, the inattention rate is found to be between 3% and 6% at the quarterly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012816462
product forecasts. We evaluated the predictive content of data releases from point and density forecast perspectives, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015073109