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decomposing realized volatility in its continuous and discontinuous jump component. First, we analyze the relation between … volatility and trading activity. Coherent with existing studies we find that the driving factor of the relation between … Data ; Realized Volatility ; Price Jump ; Trading Activity ; Urgent Market Message …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008989697
This article analyzed the presence of long memory in volatility in 5 Asian equity indices namely SENSEX, CNIA, NIKKEI …-sample forecast accuracy. The results confirmed the presence of long memory in both the return and volatility series for all the five … markets under study. Among the group, CNIA and STI showed most persistence in both the return and conditional volatility. In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013003892
We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is that investors use different forecasting models, and hence assess uncertainty differently. As economic conditions deteriorate, uncertainty rises and investors' opinions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011721618
This paper introduces Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Long Memory Stock Transaction Data of unknown underlying distribution. The moments with conditional heteroscedasticity have been discussed. In a Monte Carlo experiment, it was found that the QML estimator performs as well as CLS and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012022130
We studied (i) the volatility feedback effect, defined as the relationship between contemporaneous returns and the … market-based volatility, and (ii) the leverage effect, defined as the relationship between lagged returns and the current … market-based volatility. For our analysis, we used daily measures of volatility estimated from high frequency data to explain …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012309061
volatility índices (namely the originally created RTSVX and the new RVI that has replaced it), using daily data over the period …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011903723
This paper considers spot variance path estimation from datasets of intraday high frequency asset prices in the presence of diurnal variance patterns, jumps, leverage effects and microstructure noise. We rely on parametric and nonparametric methods. The estimated spot variance path can be used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379469
Alternative strategies for predicting stock market volatility are examined. In out-of-sample forecasting experiments … implied-volatility information, derived from contemporaneously observed option prices or history-based volatility predictors …, such as GARCH models, are investigated, to determine if they are more appropriate for predicting future return volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009767118
indicate that the volatility of stock market returns is increased in all cases examined. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010243563
first is the symmetric Generalized ARCH (1,1) model. However, previous studies found that volatility tends to increase more … higher seasonality in volatility rather on average returns. For this reason the Periodic-GARCH (1,1) is estimated. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010509192