To minimize deadweight losses, tax rates should vary unpredictably so agents cannot rearrange their work and consumption habits. As a result, optimally set tax rates will be a nonstationary time series or, put differently, changes in the tax rate will be unpredictable. This paper identifies...

This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to...

This paper proposes three short-term forecasting models for the adjusted external reserves using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with an exogenous input (SARIMA-X) and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)...