The paper presents a comparative analysis of monetary transmission mechanisms and changes in them after the "second ERM" in March 1983. The empirical model investigates the determination of money, income, prices, and interest rates in Germany, Denmark, and Italy based on the cointegrated VAR...

When generating conditional forecasts in dynamic models it is common to impose the conditions as restrictions on future structural shocks. However, these conditional forecasts often ignore that there may be uncertainty about the future development of the restricted variables. Our paper therefore...

The unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy responses during the COVID-19 crisis have increased uncertainty about inflation. During crises periods, the strength of the transmission of inflation uncertainty shocks from one country to another tends to intensify. This paper examines empirical...

Many researchers have only focused on a single way of collecting data when other methods are available. This study proposes a template for researchers who intend to use the qualitative means in extracting data for analysis. The template shows the Olonite Observation Extract Template (OOEXT)

In this paper the long-run trend in RPI inflation (core inflation) for the UK over the 1961-1997 period is estimated within the framework of a multivariate common trends model which extends the bivariate VAR approach of Quah and Vahey (1995). In this context core inflation is directly linked to...

This paper elaborates on the alternative measure of persistence recently suggested in Marques (2004), which is based on the idea of mean reversion. A formal distinction between the "unconditional probability of a given process not crossing its mean in period t" and its estimator, is made clear...

We introduce a new class of time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) where the identified structural innovations are allowed to influence the dynamics of the coefficients in these models. An estimation algorithm and a parametrization conducive to model comparison are also...

This paper presents a framework for empirical analysis of dynamic macroeconomic models using Bayesian filtering, with a specific focus on the state-space formulation of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NK DSGE) models with multiple regimes. We outline the theoretical...

The research work presented below addresses the possible concern of central bank independence through the development and application of econometric models. The complexity of the modelling has allowed a step further in corroborating that financial independence is not only linked to the...