This study examines causation between the current account and the fiscal surplus and fiscal spending for a commodity-based economy, Peru. Using quarterly data for the open economy, the outcomes reject the twin deficits hypothesis. Instead, the evidence points strongly to reverse causality, that...

We study the relationship between the budget balance and the current account balance for European Union(EU) countries, using quarterly data from1995 to2020. Through the use of panel Granger causality tests and a panel SUR model, we conclude that the relationship is bi-directional for the EU...

Starting with a very simple question — Is there any relationship between trade deficit and fiscal deficit in India? — the present study attempts to evaluate the long-run relationship and causality between trade deficit and fiscal deficit with econometric models such as unit root,...

Time varying patterns in US growth are analyzed using various univariate model structures, starting from a naive model structure where all features change every period to a model where the slow variation in the conditional mean and changes in the conditional variance are specified together with...

We propose a new approach to imposing economic constraints on forecasts of the equity premium. Economic constraints are used to modify the posterior distribution of the parameters of the predictive return regression in a way that better allows the model to learn from the data. We consider two...

This article contributes to understanding the performance of various unobserved components (UC) models in fitting Barbados’ real GDP. Relying on recent UC models techniques, it finds support for the UC model that captures correlated disturbances, but not for the model that does not. The best...

The accuracy of real-time forecasts of macroeconomic variables that are subject to revisions may crucially depend on the choice of data used to compare the forecasts against. We put forward a flexible time - varying parameter regression framework to obtain early estimates of the final value of...