Showing 1 - 10 of 293
One of the stylized facts of unemployment is that shifts in its mean rate between decades and half-decades account for most of its variance. In this paper, the authors use a statistical analysis based on switching regression models and non-parametric density estimation techniques to identify the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014219762
I examine whether the cyclical behavior of unemployment has changed over the post WWII period. Specifically, I test whether cyclical movements in unemployment have become more persistent. Finding that they have, indeed, become more persistent, I then take some initial steps in explaining why. I...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118659
Statistics Netherlands uses a state space model to estimate the Dutch unemployment by using monthly series about the labour force surveys (LFS). More accurate estimates of this variable can be obtained by including auxiliary information in the model, such as the univariate administrative series...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013245231
This paper investigates the statistical features and the macroeconomic determinants of youth unemployment in a number of European countries. First, it explores its short and long memory properties by estimating both autoregressive and fractional integration models. This type of analysis sheds...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010256726
I expose the risk of false discoveries in the context of multiple treatment effects. A false discovery is a nonexistent effect that is falsely labeled as statistically significant by its individual t-value. Labeling nonexistent effects as statistically significant has wide-ranging academic and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009740949
I analyze the matching process in the Spanish labor market from 1994-2005. I use monthly registered unemployment data and refer solely to public employment intermediation. This period reflects an upward movement along a downward sloping Beveridge curve; therefore, major changes in the process...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011452859
Dynamic discrete-choice models are an important tool in studies of state dependence in benefit receipt. A common assumption of such models is that benefit receipt sequences follow a conditional Markov process. This property has implications for how estimated period-to-period benefit transition...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011453987
Wir konstruieren ein neues Modell unbeobachteter Komponenten mit Markov-Switching zur Analyse von Hysterese-Effekten, also der Verfestigung ursprünglich zyklischer Fluktuationen. Das Modell kombiniert die Bestandteile einer Trend-Zyklus Zerlegung, der Identifikation von gegenseitigen...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372431
I analyze the matching process in the Spanish labor market from 1994-2005. I use monthly registered unemployment data and refer solely to public employment intermediation. This period reflects an upward movement along a downward sloping Beveridge curve; therefore, major changes in the process...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012994789
This work aims to test the persistence of Italian unemployment rate during last fifty years. To this scope we find evidences of a unit root, also when we allow for the presence of structural shifts so that the level of unemployment has a path dependant behaviour. Secondly, we test a possible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012770604