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A large set of macroeconomic variables have been suggested as equity risk premium predictors in the literature. This paper proposes a forecasting approach for the equity risk premium with two novel features. First, individual month-ahead forecasts are obtained from parsimonious threshold...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913585
Using the long-term wavelet component of monthly S&P 500 excess returns as supervision information, we employ a machine learning method to extract the common predictive information of 14 prevalent macroeconomic variables, and construct a new macroeconomic index aligned for predicting stock...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014238602
Standard factor models focus on returns and leave prices undetermined. Thisapproach ignores information contained in the time-series of asset prices, relevantfor long-term investors and for detecting potential mispricing. To address this issue,we propose a novel (co-)integrated methodology to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012848641
We examine the private information associated with insider trades using a Chinese data set. Insider buys positively forecast individual stock returns and insider sales negatively forecast individual stock returns. Classifying insiders as corporate managers and institutional investors, we find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834521
Models based on factors such as size, value, or momentum are ubiquitous in asset pricing. Therefore, portfolio allocation and risk management require estimates of the volatility of these factors. While realized volatility has become a standard tool for liquid individual assets, this measure is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011860248
Asset returns change with fundamentals and other factors, such as technical information and sentiment over time. In modeling time-varying expected returns, this article focuses on the out-of-sample predictability of the aggregate stock market return via extensions of the conventional predictive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013322523
After showing that the distribution of the S&P 500's distortion, i.e. the log difference between its real stock market index and its real fundamental value, is bimodal, we demonstrate that agentbased financial market models may explain this puzzling observation. Within these models, speculators...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011595441
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011325894
This paper sheds new light on the mutual relationship between investor sentiment and excess returns corresponding to the bubble component of stock prices. We propose to use the wavelet concept of the phase angle to determine the lead-lag relation between these variables. The wavelet phase angle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011325814
hypothesis of a rational bubble. -- Fractional integration ; bubbles ; changing persistence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003672198