Background:Forecasting nonlinear stochastic systems most often is quite difficult, without giving in to temptations to simply simplify models for the sake of permitting simple computations.Objective:Here, two basic algorithms, Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) and path-integral codes...

There are many real-world situations in which complex interacting forces are best described by a series of equations. Traditional regression approaches to these situations involve modeling and estimating each individual equation (producing estimates of "partial derivatives") and then solving the...

The outbreak of COVID-19 has brought the world economy at standstill which brings huge challenges to major affected countries. The impact of this disease on economy is highly uncertain putting policymakers in difficult situation to formulate appropriate policy in a short time. India being the...

The number of short-time workers from January to April 2020 is used to now- and forecast quarterly GDP growth. We purge the monthly log level series from the systematic component to extract unexpected changes or shocks to log short-time workers. These monthly shocks are included in a univariate...

The number of employees historically filed and registered from January to April 2020 for short-time compensation is used to obtain a nowcast for GDP growth in the first quarter and an outlook until the third quarter 2021. We purge the monthly log level series from the systematic component to...