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when analysts forecast negative or large changes in EPS. We also compare the accuracy of a third forecast of longer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013116514
that more basic models such as GPT-1, GPT-2, and BERT cannot accurately forecast returns, indicating return predictability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014351271
An accurate forecast of intraday volume is a key aspect of algorithmic trading. This manuscript proposes a state …-space model to forecast intraday trading volume via the Kalman filter and derives closed-form expectation-maximization (EM …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012930388
We review the literature on recurring firm events and predictable returns. Many common firm events recur on a predictable basis, such as earnings and dividends, among others. These events tend to be associated with large positive returns in the period when those events are predicted to occur...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012945701
It is assumed in the news-based model (NBM) that stock prices are determined with macroeconomic news (modeled with the total market return in the spirit of CAPM), industry news (modeled with the relevant industry ETF returns), and the company-specific news and momentum that are described using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014239426
This paper examines the main drawbacks of technical analysis. Although this is widely used by practitioners, from an academic perspective it can only be seen as a form of "voodoo finance". In particular, it runs into the following pitfalls: Subjectivity; Doubtful assumptions; Unjustified...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013489574
This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for … Bayesian VAR approach, we observe that effects on forecast errors of professionals turn out to be more significant compared to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011532311
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011294643
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012372881
various types of legal and shadow economic activities and their interrelations. The model is used to forecast the whole (legal … Ukrainian authorities take an active position in the implementation of the developed forecast for the economic development of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012264616