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Extensive empirical studies on the rationality of expectations as defined by Muth have revolved around tests on a … single series of forecast data, with results differing widely across studies. Rationality as an assessor characteristic has … long been of interest in economic theory and practice. However, as non-replicated events, single series tests do not …
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Measuring and displaying uncertainty around path-forecasts, i.e. forecasts made in period T about the expected trajectory of a random variable in periods T+1 to T+H is a key ingredient for decision making under uncertainty. The probabilistic assessment about the set of possible trajectories that...
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