We consider the basic problem of refi tting a time series over a finite period of time and formulate it as a stochastic dynamic program. By changing the underlying Markov decision process we are able to obtain a model that at optimality considers historical data as well as forecasts of future...

This thesis consists of two parts. The first part contributes statistical methodology for nonnegative integer-valued time series. The second part of this thesis consists of two chapters. One chapter is concerned with the development of efficient estimators of the marginal distribution functions...

It can be shown that inflation expectations and associated forecast errors are characterized by a high degree of persistence. One reason may be that forecasters cannot directly observe the inflation target pursued by the central bank and, hence, face a complicated forecasting problem. In...